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Nuptiality and economic conjuncture. In serach of an econometric model for the gross marriage rate
Paulo Parente > Statistical Review - 1st Four-month 2001 > INE, 2001, p. 141 - 178

Summary

In this article we try to discover the relationship between the economic climate and the number of marriages in Portugal during the period 1980-1998. With this purpose, an econometric model is developed using monthly data, in which the dependent variable is the Gross Marriage Rate and the regressors are some indicators of economic conjuncture.
The studied model allows us to conclude that the nuptiality depends in a positive way of the economic conjuncture.
At the same time, a study on the stationarity of the series used in the model was developed. The results obtained suggest that all the studied series have a simple unit root. Notably the series Gross Marriage Rate seems to have also some seasonal unit roots, a result that is rarely found in the literature.

Keywords:Nuptiality, Economic Conjuncture, Stationarity, Seasonal Unit Roots.


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