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COVID-19: a territorial view on demographic context and territorial expression of the pandemic - Data until September 09
Context indicators for the COVID-19 pandemic in Portugal
COVID-19: a territorial view on demographic context and territorial expression of the pandemic - Data until September 09
11 September 2020

Summary

The expression of the pandemic on national territory continues to be characterised by a high degree of heterogeneity. Some of the results obtained in this context:
• The preliminary number of deaths between 1 March and 30 August 2020 is 5 882 higher than the number registered in the same period in 2019. The positive variation compared to 2019 results mainly from the increase in the number of deaths in persons aged 75 and over (+ 5 162). In 164 municipalities the number of deaths registered between 3 and 30 August was higher than the same reference value.
• From the end of August, the number of new COVID-19 cases increased, with values above 2,500 new cases from September 7 (cumulative values for the last 7 days) and reaching 3,075 new cases (corresponding to 3.0 new cases per 10 thousand inhabitants) on September 9.
• On 6 September, the reference date for the latest data released by Directorate-General of Health at municipal level, for every 10 thousand inhabitants, there were 2.4 new cases of COVID-19. In 53 municipalities, the number of new cases confirmed per 10 thousand inhabitants was higher than this reference value, with 13 municipalities in the Metropolitan Area of Porto and neighbouring territories and 11 municipalities in the Metropolitan Area of Lisboa standing out.
• The analysis of the territorial concentration of new cases showed an upward trend until June 14 (last 7 days), followed by a progressive reduction, reaching the highest level of territorial dispersion of the series from April 19 to September 6, on September 6.
• In the 7 days ending on September 6, the Metropolitan Area of Lisboa represented 40% of the new cases in the country (28% of the resident population in 2019). Over the last few weeks, there has also been an increase in the number of new cases in the Metropolitan Area of Porto, reaching the values of confirmed new cases per 10 thousand inhabitants observed for the country. The new cases registered in the two metropolitan areas accounted for more than half (56%) of the total number of new cases in the country on September 6.
• On September 6, there were 58.8 cases of COVID-19 per 10 thousand inhabitants in Portugal. The analysis of the relationship between the number of confirmed cases and the number of new cases (last 7 days) per 10 thousand inhabitants showed nine municipalities in the Metropolitan Area of Lisboa with values above the national average in both indicators, which concentrated 33% of the total new cases in the country and 81% of the total new cases in the Metropolitan Area of Lisboa.
• In addition, the regression analysis of the daily series of new confirmed cases of COVID-19 showed a weekly structure characterised by the recording of a higher number of daily cases, in relative terms, on each week on working days from Tuesday to Friday, than on the other days. This pattern determines the complementary use of 7-day moving averages (or 7-day accumulated values) to assess the trend behaviour of the series.


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